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WORD COUNT
706
JUNE 25, 2008
WHY THE SUDDEN FOOD
CRISIS? – by Dennis Keeney
The world has
witnessed with concern the sudden increase in food prices and decrease
in availability of food staples, especially in low-income, food-short
countries.
Rising prices hit
hard at the world's poorest people, who are spending as much as 80
percent of their income on food. These price increases are sentencing as
many as 100 million more people to hunger and poverty. Arrows are being
slung back and forth about the cause of the "food crisis." Some place
the blame on more affluent emerging countries, particularly China and
India. Others blame weather disasters, particularly drought in the
wheat-growing regions of China and Australia. And now the nation and the
world must cope with the disastrous floods hitting the heart of corn and
soybean country in the
United States.
What is the truth?
Will we ever sort out what brought on the "silent tsunami" – a term used
recently by World Food Program director Josette Sheeran? One thing is
for sure: It's doubtful that rising food prices will come back down
soon, if ever. In our human way, we want to find reasons and blame those
responsible. Let us not forget: At least 35 million Americans (12
million households) were short of food in 2002, even though our food was
still cheap compared to prices in Europe.
The basis of the
problem lies with us, a society that assumes food comes from a grocery
store and that we could easily feed everyone who comes in the door. We
believe we can always push the pump handle harder by improving the
genetics of our crops, growing on more acres by using land now protected
for conservation, increasing irrigation and moving to highly "efficient"
farming methods that rely on nitrogen and other fertilizers, pesticides
and genetically engineered crops. But without good weather, these
technological fixes wither in the wind. And the challenges are far
different in countries struggling to feed their own.
From 1798 to 1826,
British economist and demographer Robert Malthus produced a series of
essays on the relation between population and food supply. In essence,
he said that the rate of population growth would be exponential, while
food supply will increase linearly. In other words, sooner or later
there will be more people than food. Of course, in 1800 he had no
concept of the ability of technology to increase the supply of food, so
the "Malthusian hypothesis" has not yet hit the Earth. But many think it
is only a matter of time, while others feel we can still work through
this with technology.
Few are ready to talk
about the carrying capacity of Earth and whether we are exceeding it.
Perhaps the time has come to realize that Earth is close to being
stressed beyond its ability to support the people inhabiting it. It is
not just the food we grow, but the damage we are causing to the land by
over-farming, the addition of pollutants to the atmosphere bringing on
rapid climate change, and the now-generation approach that we must have
it all. We have not grasped the concept of sustainability.
There are ways to
work out of this trap, but the going will be tough. Local foods must be
emphasized worldwide. We must find ways for people in poor countries to
again grow their own food -- and make enough extra to earn a respectable
income.
Climate change is
with us, so we must learn to address it while finding ways to slow the
use of the atmosphere as a common dumping ground. And rather than
blaming developing nations that try to be more like us, we should turn
our lifestyles around. If the United States can show ways to live
sustainably, "more like us" will be a more sustainable world.
This lifestyle must
include markedly less use of fossil fuels. The wise development of
unused natural resources for fuels and materials for a sustainable
lifestyle would help take us off the path of peak oil and toxic
chemicals.
Even if all goes
well, it will be a long climb back to the happy, comfortable world we
knew just a few years ago.
For more than 200
years scientists, demographers and policymakers have been dismissing
Malthus. Now we must take him seriously.
--
Dr. Dennis Keeney is
a senior fellow, Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy. The
Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy's, headquartered in
Minneapolis,
is a policy research center committed to creating environmentally and
economically sustainable rural communities and regions through sound
agriculture and trade policy.
www.iatp.org
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